ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty levels were assessed using the global threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively represent another 47% of the population living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations comprise about 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, roughly 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to rise.
At a higher threshold of $4.20 daily, used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty situation also worsened. The percentage of the population living below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate reached approximately 48%, compared with 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributes this deterioration to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustments. These shocks are identified as key factors behind the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Escalating Poverty Burden Follows Years of Economic Disruptions
Earlier in 2026, new household survey data prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding roughly 21 million people to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty levels remain high. The latest forecasts estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is projected at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Therefore, despite ongoing economic expansion, inflation is expected to remain above the previous year’s estimate.
Changes in Regional Classification Impact Poverty Comparisons
The 48% share also results from a statistical reclassification that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to the finance minister, explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations, influencing regional poverty shares.
The October report also indicated weaker economic prospects for MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is expected to decline by 2.1% after experiencing a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced setbacks due to conflict and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Nonetheless, developing oil-importing countries like Pakistan are expected to remain relatively resilient, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% for that group in 2026. Persistently high food and energy prices continue to strain household purchasing power across multiple nations.