PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal is contemplating an additional cut in the number of ships passing through each day as drought conditions threaten its water resources. According to administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta, the daily transit count could decrease to approximately 29 vessels in February or March 2027. Future reductions will depend on ongoing dry weather and reservoir water levels. Currently, the waterway is nearing a cap of 32 transits per day, effective from Sept. 15.
Capacity reductions by the Panama Canal Authority began after rainfall and watershed inflows declined below anticipated levels during the wet season. The daily number of crossings initially decreased to 34 before the planned reduction to 32. The canal’s operation relies heavily on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake, which is essential for running its locks. Each transit requires water to elevate or lower vessels traveling between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day up to June 30. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 crossings, representing a 5.2% rise compared to the same timeframe the previous year. These figures predate the worsening rainfall conditions that led to new operational limits. Despite these challenges, the canal remains a vital route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels engaged in international trade.
Reservoir levels influence daily transit capacity
The availability of water has historically dictated the number of ships allowed to pass through the canal during dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits plunged to 22 in December, as Gatun Lake’s water levels dropped to historically low points. Conditions improved once rainfall resumed and water conservation efforts helped restore reservoir levels. The canal’s management continues to monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation to determine daily operational limits.
In addition, vessel draft restrictions have been modified under current water management strategies. The planned reduction of the Neopanamax draft to 47.5 feet was deferred after officials assessed updated reservoir conditions. The maximum draft thus remained at 48 feet. Draft limits influence how deeply loaded ships sit in the water, impacting the volume of cargo that can be transported through the canal.
Booking procedures tightened amid reduced transit slots
As the number of daily transit slots decreases, the canal has introduced revised booking and auction procedures. The auction categories now differentiate vessels based on cargo types, such as container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk carriers. Priority is often given to full container ships with higher carrying capacities in some Neopanamax allocations, particularly when other factors are equal. Officials are encouraging vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as confirmed bookings guarantee scheduled transit dates.
A decision to cut traffic to 29 ships per day has not yet been formally announced. Espino de Marotta indicated that this level could become a restriction if dry conditions persist into early 2027. Furthermore, the canal is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project, aimed at boosting long-term water storage capacity. Authorities state that this initiative will help sustain canal operations and improve water availability for a significant portion of Panama’s population.
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